The Euro currency (Euro FX) has been a volatile for the past few years. However, that hasn’t stopped the steady slide of the Euro against most other major currencies. The reasons why it is still falling are numerous and include everything from political instability to economic, and geopolitical concerns. Even though many people see this as a bad sign, there are plenty of reasons why the Euro will continue to fall. Here are six of them:
The Euro currency is struggling to keep up with the U.S. dollar.
The Euro currency has been falling against the U.S. dollar for some time, and it doesn’t look like the trend will end anytime soon. The cause of the drop is for a variety of reasons. One of the major points is the different economic outlook between Europe and North America. Many economists in North America expect their economy to continue to improve. However, economists in Europe are largely expecting the economy to remain stagnant or even worsen. This difference in outlook will likely lead to continued weakness of the Euro against the dollar.
Economic Concerns About the EU Member Countries
The Euro currency struggles to stay afloat in part because of the economic concerns about the EU member countries. Because the Euro currency is the common currency for the EU, any economic problems in one member country may eventually affect the Euro Currency. The countries in the EU are not all in the best economic shape right now. Economists are becoming concerned about the recent government spending in the European Union. This has led to many investors selling their Euro in favor of the U.S. dollar or other currencies. This is one of the major reasons why the Euro will continue to fall.
Opposite side of the coin: US Dollar Strength as Interest Rates Rise
The Euro currency and oil – A contributing factor
Oil is traded in US dollars. That means European countries buying energy must sell their Euro currency and buy US Dollars to purchase oil. The recent OPEC+ meeting concluded that cutting 2 million barrels a day to raise prices will further contribute to worldwide inflation adding more fuel to the fire (no pun intended). Elevated energy prices are increasing the potential problem with no end in sight.
The European Union Is Propping Up Failing Banks with Taxpayer Money
Many banks in Europe that are considered too big to fail (sound familiar). This is leads central banks to use taxpayer money to prop up these failing institutions. This will likely cause the Euro to continue to fall.
The Euro Currency Has Been Sliding Against the US Dollar For Years
Another reason why the Euro will continue to fall is because it has been sliding against the US dollar for years. This is likely to continue and may even accelerate over the coming months. The US is aggressively raising rates. The European Union is also, but nowhere near as aggressive. This makes the US dollar look more enticing than the Euro currency for investors.
The US Dollar is likely to continue to gain strength
Another reason why the Euro will continue to fall is that the US dollar is likely to continue to gain strength. However, that has changed in the past few years. The Euro has been losing strength while the US dollar has been gaining strength. Varying factors are to blame. One of them is the different economic outlook between Europe and North America.
The Euro has been a volatile currency since its inception. We must examine the contributing factors, from Covid to Russia, energy costs and tariffs, influx of refugees and Brexit. Selling the Euro currency short now may be one of the smarter bets we’ve seen in a while. FEL-PM-221006
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